Heat stabilizers, predominantly used in PVC, are undergoing a tremendous change - mainly because of environmental regulatory concern. The global market of heat stabilizers in 2003 was about 525KT. Heat stabilizers tend to grow at almost the same rate as PVC; about 2-3% pa. While the average growth could not be very different, it certainly is expected to shift significantly in the next few years. The market share of lead stabilizers, currently at more than 55% of the total demand, could go down substantially. The second group of mixed metal stabilizers, with a present market share of 30% could be expected to grow at about 4%. Tin stabilizer with about 15% of the market share is expected to grow at a minimum rate of 3%.

Lead stabilizer finds use in pipe formulations in Europe and Asia. However, because of heavy metal content, the usage of lead stabilizer is expected to be phased out gradually or reduced significantly. The European Council has decided to reduce lead stabilizer levels voluntarily over the next few years. It is expected that pipes may move from lead stabilizer to either calcium-zinc or organic stabilizer. While a shift to calcium-zinc is easier, the shift to organic stabilizer is an expensive proposal and may be difficult. The European region may not accept the use of tin stabilizer in pipe formulation. However, USA and Japan are expected to continue with tin stabilizer for pipe.

Another significant use of lead stabilizer is in wire/cable compositions. The electrical property retention in water of the lead stabilizer is a very difficult target to be achieved by other stabilization systems. It is expected that the shift of lead stabilizer from this application segment would be very slow, at least for another two decades. The European vinyl industry has a goal to be lead free in wire/cable composition by 2015. It is however very challenging to find a suitable cost effective alternative.

Assuming that the shift from lead to other stabilizing systems is achieved in the next 10 years, the composition of heat stabilizer market in 2015 would be entirely different from the present one, where lead has a major market share. By 2015, only the Asian region having 45% share of global PVC consumption will be using lead stabilizer for both pipe and wire/cable. This would reduce the dominance of lead stabilizer globally.

Heat stabilizers are expected to have the following composition by 2015

The enforcement of stricter environmental regulations and norms are expected to benefit organic stabilizers and mixed metal products more