Indian Economic Scenario
India's aspiration of economic growth acceleration in 2011 turned into deceleration on several factors in the international and domestic market. The recent unprecedented depreciation of Indian rupee vs the US dollar failed to transform lower international commodity prices into lower prices in rupee terms. 2011-12 GDP growth forecasts have been trimmed down to 7-7.5% from the original 8-9% mainly caused by a global economic slowdown, inflation, the Eurozone crisis, a total of 13 interest rate hikes since March 2010, falling rupee and slowing growth, fiscal deficit and steady withdrawal of foreign institutional investor (FII) funds from the stock market. Economic activity has been sluggish and industrial output growth in September fell to two-year lows, with any solid recovery unlikely for the next couple of quarters.
Polymer scenario in 2011
Global polymer consumption for the year 2011 is forecast to be either stagnant or weak. Global polymer demand in 2011 is estimated to grow by 2% at best or could decline by 2% in the pessimistic scenario.
Indian polymer industry in 2011 is expected to be either stagnant or show some modest growth. Generally the second half of financial year (from April- March) in India shows better performance compared to the first half. Overall Indian plastic consumption in 2011 could be around 9.7 mln tons compared to 9.5 mln tons in 2010. Polyolefin comprising of PE & PP could show consumption of around 5.7 mln tons. PVC and Styrenics could show consumption of about 2.4 mln tons. PET film and bottle consumption could reach about 0.8 mln tons. All other plastic resins including thermosets could have consumption of another 0.8 mln tons.
A clearer picture of actual consumption in 2011-2012 will emerge only at the end of financial year after March 2012. The table below gives plastemart.com estimates of Indian polymer consumption in 2011 financial year, based on current conditions.
Estimated Polymer Consumption in India for FY 2011 (2011-2012) |
| Polymer |
KT |
KT |
KT |
(%) |
| LDPE/EVA |
400 |
|
|
|
| LLDPE |
1025 |
|
|
|
| HDPE |
1525 |
|
- |
|
| Total PE |
|
2950 |
|
30 |
| PP |
|
2750 |
|
|
| Total Polyolefins |
5700 |
59 |
| PVC |
|
|
1950 |
20 |
| PS/EPS |
|
|
325 |
3 |
| ABS/SAN/ASA |
150 |
2 |
| Commodity Polymers |
|
|
8125 |
84 |
| Other Polymers |
|
|
| ETP (PC, PA, POM, High performance ETP) |
|
250 |
|
3 |
| PU |
|
225 |
|
2 |
| All other (including thermosets) |
|
300 |
|
3 |
| Other polymers |
775 |
8 |
| Commodity & other polymers |
|
|
8900 |
92 |
| PET (Bottle, film, APET) |
|
|
800 |
8 |
| Total polymer estimated consumption |
|
|
9700 |
100 |
| |