|
China has a dozen major oil and chemical products of which the output
ranks high in the world. Included are chemical fertilizer and dye
whose output ranks the first in the world; soda and pesticide ranking
second; sulphuric acid and caustic soda ranking third; synthetic rubber
and ethylene ranking fourth; crude oil ranking fifth; synthetic resin
ranking sixth; and natural gas ranking 19th. China's petroleum and
chemical industry has formed a complete setup with more than 20 industrial
sectors and over 40,000 types of products. However, the industry faces
structural contradiction, according to the State Economic and Trade
Commission.
Crude oil
According to statistics, China's oil consumption ranks fourth in the
world, and accounts for five percentage of the world's total. Since
1993 when China became a net oil importer, its import of crude oil
soared to 70.27 million tons in 2000, and will top 100 million tons
by 2005. The country is expected to lack 130 million tons of crude
oil by 2015, and the undersupply situation will remain unchanged for
quite a long period of time.
Ethylene
By the end of 1999, China had 18 ethylene plants. Included were
seven large plants, each with an annual capacity of 300,000 tons and
11 medium-sized ones. They had a combined capacity of 4.42 million
tons. China produced 4.346 million tons of ethylene in 1999, and consumed
9.25 million tons in the same year. The domestic production could
satisfy only 47% of the total. The State Economic and Trade Commission
forecasts that, with a seven percentage increase in the gross domestic
product (GDP) during the 2001-2005 period, China's demand for ethylene
will reach 14 million tons by 2005, and its production capacity will
be 8.3 million tons, which can satisfy 60% of the market demand.
Synthetic resin
The output of China's five major synthetic resins including polyethylene,
polypropylene, polyphenylacetylene, polychloroethylene and ABS was
7.98 million tons in 1999. The output could only satisfy 48% of the
market demand. According to the commission, the domestic demand for
the five major synthetic resins will come to 25 million tons by 2005,
an increase of 5.6% annually. The domestic market satisfaction rate
will be 60% . Analyzing the overall development of the industry, there
will be structural contradictions in addition to the contradiction
to limit the aggregate. Included will be:-
 |
irrational proportion in oil sinking and storage |
|
slow upgrading of product mix |
|
backward technological level |
|
slow level of scale economy |
Irrational proportion in oil sinking and storage
At present, the output value of industrial departments with oil as
fuel and raw materials accounts for one sixth of the gross national
industrial output value. China's oil consumption has gone up at an
annual speed of 5.14% over the past decade while its oil production
goes up only 1.6% a year. Although China made progress in verifying
new oil reserves during the 1996-2000 period, the shortage of back-up
oil resources has not yet been alleviated. According to the second
national appraisal of oil and natural gas resources, China's geological
reserves of crude oil total 94 billion tons. By the end of 1999, China
had verified a total 20.5 billion tons of oil reserves including 5.87
billion tons available for sinking. The rate of verified oil reserves
available for use accounts for 41.9% of the total.The country's geological
resources of natural gas amount to 38,000 billion cubic meters. By
the end of 1999, China had verified geological reserves of natural
gas totaling 2,399 billion cubic meters including 1,480 billion cubic
meters of gas available for drilling.
Slow upgrading of product mix
Poor quality, simple and low-grade products remain a big problem in
the product mix of the industry. At present, the rate of fine chemicals
in economically developed countries is 60%, while that in China is
only 33%.
Backward technological level
The backward technological level mainly reflects in the capacity of
technological development, deep processing of natural resources, and
energy consumption.
Low level of scale of economy
China's largest oil refinery has a production capacity of 10 million
tons/year in comparison with the world's largest oil refinery with
a capacity of 30 million tons/year. A survey shows that 62% of China's
refineries have a production capacity of less than 500,000 tons/year
each. Of China's 1,565 chemical fertilizer plants, only 32 are large
synthetic plants each with a production capacity of over 300,000 tons;
only 11 are large phosphate and potash fertilizer plants, while 1,437,
or 92%, are small plants with their combined production capacity accounting
for 56% of the total.
The coming decade will be a key period for China's petroleum and chemical
industry to shift its strategy and establish a superior industrial
setup. The industry will continue to develop chemical fertilizer,
caustic soda and soda industrial sectors while cultivating new ones,
accelerate oil prospecting and develop the petrochemical base raw
material industrial sector. According to a plan, China's annual output
of crude oil will reach between 170 million tons and 180 million tons
by the end of 2005, and that of natural gas, between 50 billion tons
and 60 billion tons. China plans to build two one-million-ton ethylene
production bases in Shanghai and Jiangsu province to enable the country's
ethylene production capacity up to 8.3 million tons.
Accelerate the development of new synthetic materials
The annual domestic market demand for five major synthetic resins
will be 22 million tons to 22.5 million tons by the end of 2005. There
will be a big gap between production and demand. Attention will be
given to developing polyethylene, polypropylene and polychloroethylene
during this period to increase the proportion of special materials
made of synthetic resins to up 40%.
Positively open new fine chemicals
Focus of development of the fine chemical industrial sector in the
years to 2005 will be additive for animal feed, food additive, information-based
chemicals, electronic chemicals, high-grade paint, high-grade dye,
bio-chemicals, efficient low-poisonous pesticide, new and efficient
catalytic agents. The rate of the fine chemical industrial sector
will rise from the present 33% of the total to 45% by the end of 2005.
Increase the processing capacity of rubber products
China plans to expand its tire production capacity up to 150 million
pieces by the end of 2005 and the annual output up to 120 million
pieces, of which radial-type tire output will account for 45%.
Develop environment-friendly chemicals
According to the State Economic and Trade Commission, the recapitalisation
and restructuring of the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC)
and the China Petrochemical Group (Sinopec) reflects that the petroleum
and chemical industry has adapted itself to the international market
competition. The industry will further restructure and optimise its
technical structure and concentrate on the domestic and international
markets.
|