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Less than 4% growth expected in global Polyethylene consumption in the next 6 years
 

From 1990 to 1995, global polyethylene consumption grew at the rate of 5.5%. Since the turn of this century, PE is growing at a slow pace in Europe, North America and Japan and seems to have reached a level of maturity. In 2001, the international polyethylene throughput was 65.74 million tons, actual output was 51.08 million tons, and consumption was pegged at 50.63 million tons. Except in Africa, Asia, Oceania, Latin America, PE demand was less than output. Middle East recorded the maximum productivity and consumption increase.

No significant growth is expected in Europe in the next 5-6 years. In fact, pundits expect only 0.6% growth of Polyethylenes in Europe. Only Russia and Eastern Europe will contribute to some growth. Maack Business expects global PE consumption to reach a level of 77 million tons by 2010. By 2006, global PE productivity will have reached 78.5 million tons and demand will reach 62.92 million tons. But an interesting aspect will be the geographical shift. From the existing developed region of North America, Europe & Japan, consumption will tilt to the new developing economies which will have a share of over 55% of the global consumption by 2010. In Asia, the situation of demand exceeding supply will reverse in a few years. China will be an exception where growth of more than 7% is expected until 2010. The developing economies will continue to grow better and therefore contribute to an overall average growth rate of 3.8% until 2010. This average growth is significantly lower compared to the 5.5% that was seen between 1990-1995.

  GLOBAL PE CAPACITIES IN %
YEAR LDPE LLDPE HDPE TOTAL
1960 86 14 100
1970 76 - 24 100
1980 70 3 27 100
1990 47 20 33 100
2000 32 37 31 100
2005 29 39 32 100
2010 28 42 30 100

REGION GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION IN %
  1980 1990 2002 2005
WEST EUROPE 37 27 20 20
NORTH AMERICA 35 35 30 27
JAPAN 10 9 6 5
% OF PE CAPACITY 82 71 56 52
EAST EUROPE 7 8 5 5
AFRICA   2 2 2
MIDDLE EAST 1 4 9 13
CENTRAL / SOUTH AMERICA 5 4 5 5
CHINA 1 3 5 6
ASIA / PACIFIC (EXCL. JAPAN) 4 9 18 17
% OF PE CAPACITY 18 29 44 48

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