From
1990 to 1995, global polyethylene consumption grew at the rate of
5.5%. Since the turn of this century, PE is growing at a slow pace
in Europe, North America and Japan and seems to have reached a level
of maturity. In 2001, the international polyethylene throughput
was 65.74 million tons, actual output was 51.08 million tons, and
consumption was pegged at 50.63 million tons. Except in Africa,
Asia, Oceania, Latin America, PE demand was less than output. Middle
East recorded the maximum productivity and consumption increase.
No significant growth is expected in Europe in the next 5-6 years.
In fact, pundits expect only 0.6% growth of Polyethylenes in Europe.
Only Russia and Eastern Europe will contribute to some growth. Maack
Business expects global PE consumption to reach a level of 77 million
tons by 2010. By 2006, global PE productivity will have reached
78.5 million tons and demand will reach 62.92 million tons. But
an interesting aspect will be the geographical shift. From the existing
developed region of North America, Europe & Japan, consumption
will tilt to the new developing economies which will have a share
of over 55% of the global consumption by 2010. In Asia, the situation
of demand exceeding supply will reverse in a few years. China will
be an exception where growth of more than 7% is expected until 2010.
The developing economies will continue to grow better and therefore
contribute to an overall average growth rate of 3.8% until 2010.
This average growth is significantly lower compared to the 5.5%
that was seen between 1990-1995.
|
GLOBAL PE CAPACITIES IN
% |
YEAR |
LDPE |
LLDPE |
HDPE |
TOTAL |
1960 |
86 |
– |
14 |
100 |
1970 |
76 |
- |
24 |
100 |
1980 |
70 |
3 |
27 |
100 |
1990 |
47 |
20 |
33 |
100 |
2000 |
32 |
37 |
31 |
100 |
2005 |
29 |
39 |
32 |
100 |
2010 |
28 |
42 |
30 |
100 |
REGION |
GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION
IN % |
|
1980 |
1990 |
2002 |
2005 |
WEST EUROPE |
37 |
27 |
20 |
20 |
NORTH AMERICA |
35 |
35 |
30 |
27 |
JAPAN |
10 |
9 |
6 |
5 |
% OF PE CAPACITY |
82 |
71 |
56 |
52 |
EAST EUROPE |
7 |
8 |
5 |
5 |
AFRICA |
|
2 |
2 |
2 |
MIDDLE EAST |
1 |
4 |
9 |
13 |
CENTRAL / SOUTH AMERICA |
5 |
4 |
5 |
5 |
CHINA |
1 |
3 |
5 |
6 |
ASIA / PACIFIC (EXCL. JAPAN) |
4 |
9 |
18 |
17 |
% OF PE CAPACITY |
18 |
29 |
44 |
48 |
|