In a study of cost comparison
of petrochemical projects across the globe,
Nexant, a well-known research organization,
has found that China as well as the other Asian
regions offer cost competitiveness in the newer
petrochemical projects.
Three North Asian countries Japan, South China
and Taiwan, dominate the Asian petrochemical
industry, and jointly represent about 70% of
the world's installed petrochemical capacity.
Over the past five years, China's relative importance
has increased as it continues as a preferred
destination for investments. However, China's
petrochemical demand-supply imbalance is the
largest in the region, and is expected to continue,
despite numerous projects currently being planned
or under consideration.
The study profiles a number
of variables that impact the cost-competitiveness
of petrochemical products in the region. Manufacturing
costs have been estimated for leader plants
in each country that, in most instances, represent
newly built, world-scale plants incorporating
the most efficient current process technologies
and economies of scale. The products profiled
are ethylene, HDPE, LLDPE, LDPE, PP, VCM, PVC,
MEG, benzene, styrene, PX, and PTA for those
countries currently producing those products,
or that have firm plans to start production
by 2008. Economic scenarios were developed for
2004 and 2008. The countries covered in the
study include China, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea,
Thailand, Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia,
India, Philippines, Australia and Vietnam. To
put Asian costs in a global context, the economics
for leader plants in U.S.A, Western Europe and
the Middle East are also provided.
The study highlights the capital cost differences
observed in China. Surprisingly, China's capital
cost location factor as compared to only a few
years ago, declined rather significantly, in
contrast to the location factors for other regions
that remained relatively stable over the same
period. Capital cost is now the key item in
differentiating older plants built in China
with a high degree of imported services and
content, and the plants currently being built
in China by both local companies and joint ventures
which maximize local content. Local content
ranges from engineering, procurement, and construction
services, to locally developed technology and
key process equipment.
To highlight these differences in capital requirements,
Nexant developed two different scenarios for
China. One scenario, identified as "Maximizing
Local Content," reflects the current practice
of maximizing the use of local resources and
services offered by Chinese companies and suppliers.
This practice allows for sizeable savings in
capital costs, thus providing a competitive
cost advantage to those plants built with local
materials and services.
The alternative scenario, "Minimizing Local
Content," is reflective of past practices
that relied heavily on imported resources for
petrochemical plant construction, with low construction
wages being the sole cost-saving benefit.
Nexant compiled the results of the cost of production
analyses, and prepared comparisons to illustrate
the competitiveness of leader plants in each
country covered in the report (provided such
facilities existed in 2004 or were highly likely
to be completed by 2008), as well as leader
facilities in USGC, Western Europe, and the
Middle East.
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