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Polyolefins have grown over 4.5% in 2002, inspite
of the current difficult economic conditions prevelant in North
America, South America, Europe and Japan. International consultants
like CMAI, Maack and Nexant have estimated that polyolefins, consisting
of LDPE, LLDPE, HDPE, PP have grown to 88 million tonnes this year
from 84 million tonnes in 2002.
Consumption pattern of polyolefins
| |
MIOT 2001 |
MIOT 2002 |
AAGR (%) |
| LDPE |
16.5 |
16 |
- |
| LLDPE |
13.5 |
15 |
11 |
| TOTAL LD/LL |
31 |
32 |
3.2 |
| HDPE |
22 |
23 |
4.5 |
| Total PE |
53 |
55 |
3.8 |
| PP |
31 |
33 |
6.5 |
| Total Polyolefins |
84 |
88 |
4.8 |
| |
Capacity
(MIOT) |
Consumption
(MIOT) |
Overall
Capacity Utilization (%) |
| |
|
|
|
| |
2001 |
2002 |
2001 |
2002 |
2001 |
2002 |
| PE |
66 |
68 |
53 |
55 |
80 |
81 |
| PP |
38 |
40 |
31 |
33 |
81.5 |
82.5 |
| Total |
104 |
108 |
84 |
88 |
81 |
81.5 |
Demand increased during the first half of 2002,
as compared to the later half. Increasing feedstock prices raised
polymer prices substantially in the last quarter of 2002, stalling
growth to some extent. Higher feedstock and energy costs have squeezed
profit margins of polymer producers. The Middle Eastern region increased
its global market share due to cheaper feedstocks as well as increased
capacity. Weaker profit margins will continue to influence industry
consolidation in 2003.
The fundamentally weaker global economy in the
developed regions, with the substantial increase in oil prices during
first quarter of 2003 could adversely affect the profit margins
and may also lead to lower growth in 2003.
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